New Delhi, September 9 — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to India for the BRICS Summit later this week has drawn attention to the fragile thaw between New Delhi and Beijing, as the two Asian powers work to stabilize relations while remaining some distance from full normalization, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Although disengagement and patrolling have resumed along parts of the border following the 2020 Galwan clashes, de-escalation and troop de-induction remain incomplete, according to China expert and Jawaharlal Nehru University professor Srikanth Kondapalli.
Kondapalli said Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi agreed during their October 2024 meeting in Kazan, Russia, to work toward normalization along the border. However, he said the process has so far resulted mainly in disengagement and the resumption of patrolling, rather than broader de-escalation and troop withdrawals.
He explained that disengagement involves moving troops away from positions where they had been deployed in close proximity, while de-escalation would require the withdrawal of offensive weapons and military systems from border areas. These include drones, tanks, armored personnel carriers and multiple rocket launchers.
The high-altitude terrain also makes troop de-induction difficult because military personnel require prolonged acclimatization to low-oxygen conditions.
Despite the unresolved security issues, India and China have maintained diplomatic and military channels through mechanisms including Special Representatives’ talks, the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination and military commander-level meetings.
Kondapalli described the normalization process as slow and said the two sides had achieved relative stability along the LAC. However, he cautioned that another confrontation could occur because confidence-building measures have not been fully codified.
He said India and China have roughly 30 dialogue mechanisms, many of which remain suspended. The continued functioning of only selected mechanisms, including Corps Commander-level meetings, the Special Representatives’ dialogue and the Strategic Dialogue, reflects the limitations of the normalization process.
While political and security ties remain cautious, economic engagement has expanded significantly. Bilateral trade reached about $155 billion in 2025, according to Kondapalli, but the increase has also widened India’s trade deficit with China to approximately $99 billion.
Kondapalli said the trade imbalance remains a major concern and argued that China should provide greater market access for Indian products and increase investment in India. He estimated Chinese investment in India at about $2 billion, describing it as small relative to the size of the Chinese economy.
He also pointed to India’s strong economic growth as an opportunity to expand exports to China and help reduce the trade imbalance.
Taken together, the border situation, limited resumption of dialogue and trade deficit indicate that India-China relations have entered a phase of cautious engagement rather than comprehensive normalization, he said.
Against this backdrop, a possible bilateral meeting between Modi and Xi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit could provide an important diplomatic signal, although the interaction is unlikely to overshadow the broader multilateral agenda.
Kondapalli said the BRICS Summit would remain the primary focus, particularly because China is scheduled to host the grouping’s summit next year. He noted that Beijing also has an interest in ensuring the success of the current summit.
However, multilateral gatherings can provide opportunities for leaders to address sensitive bilateral issues. Kondapalli said contentious matters could be discussed even during a brief meeting on the sidelines of a larger summit.
For India, the border situation is likely to remain a key concern, particularly the unresolved issues of de-escalation and troop de-induction. Kondapalli said any meeting between Modi and Xi could therefore produce important signals, although he cautioned against expecting a dramatic breakthrough from a brief encounter.
He noted that even short meetings during multilateral summits have historically been used to raise sensitive bilateral concerns, citing former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s discussions with Chinese leaders on issues including water and hydrological data.
“The problem between India and China is the bilateral, not the multilateral,” Kondapalli said, adding that the signals emerging from any Modi-Xi interaction would therefore be significant.
As New Delhi and Beijing cautiously rebuild engagement after the rupture caused by the 2020 Galwan clashes, the BRICS Summit could provide another opportunity for dialogue and limited progress in bilateral relations. (ANI)
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