New Delhi, India, October 24 (ANI) — Artificial intelligence (AI) could generate $2.52 trillion in annual economic value globally by automating and supporting existing work, but rising deployment costs could significantly reduce these potential gains, according to an October 2026 research report by McKinsey.
The report, titled “The AI Value Curve: The Economics of Applying AI to Existing Work,” found that although businesses are rapidly deploying AI, many have yet to determine whether the technology delivers sufficient economic returns.
“Many organizations, however, are still measuring AI adoption instead of value,” the report stated.
According to McKinsey, a 30% increase in the effective cost of AI could reduce the estimated global economic value pool from $2.52 trillion to $1.67 trillion, a decline of approximately 34%, or $850 billion.
In the United States alone, the estimated annual value pool could fall by $320 billion, from $960 billion to $640 billion, under the same scenario.
The report clarified that these estimates represent a modeled scenario rather than a forecast.
The findings come as companies increase investments in AI infrastructure, software and automation, raising questions about whether productivity gains can justify deployment costs.
McKinsey estimated that approximately $7 trillion could be invested in AI infrastructure by 2030, requiring annual profit pools of about $760 billion to justify the investment.
The research identified financial services as the sector with the greatest potential economic gains from AI, estimated at $530 billion annually. Education followed with $410 billion, technology, media and telecommunications with $360 billion, and health care with $310 billion.
The report also found that some of AI’s strongest economic benefits could come from supporting highly skilled, higher-paid professionals rather than simply automating large volumes of lower-wage work.
Occupations involving legal services, health care, management and computer-related work showed significant potential for cost-effective AI deployment.
However, the report emphasized that AI’s economic benefits vary across countries because of differences in labor costs.
“The AI value curve also shows that AI economics are local, not global,” the report stated.
This distinction is particularly relevant for labor-intensive economies, where relatively lower wages can alter the financial case for replacing or supporting human tasks with AI.
McKinsey’s analysis compares existing labor costs with the full cost of using AI, including technology expenses, human supervision, verification and rework.
The report noted that AI’s economic potential depends not only on technological capabilities but also on whether companies can deploy it at a sustainable cost while maintaining acceptable work quality.
It recommended that businesses prioritize applications offering clear economic returns, assess the impact of changing AI costs and plan how to redeploy employees as technology transforms existing work. (ANI)
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