New Delhi, August 6 (ANI): Under India’s Automotive Mission Plan 2047, total vehicle production across all segments is projected to increase from 34.71 million units in fiscal year 2026 to 50 million units by 2030, eventually reaching 200 million units by 2047.
According to a report by Rubix Data Sciences, the commercial vehicle (CV) market has also undergone a structural transformation. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) increased their share of total CV sales from 28% to 39%, driven by demand from the infrastructure, mining, and long-haul freight sectors.
The report also said India is expected to be the world’s third-largest automobile market in 2025.
Utility vehicles have strengthened their dominance in the Indian automotive market, with sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossovers accounting for 65% of all passenger vehicle (PV) sales in FY25, up from 39% in FY21.
The shift toward larger vehicles coincided with domestic passenger vehicle sales growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%, rising from 2.71 million units to 4.64 million units over the same period.
In FY26, passenger vehicle sales increased approximately 8% year over year, while commercial vehicle sales rose 12.5%. The report attributed the growth to lower tax burdens under GST 2.0 and reduced financing costs resulting from cuts in the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate.
On the international front, passenger vehicle exports reached a record 770,000 units in FY25, reflecting a 17% CAGR, driven by demand for compact cars and utility vehicles produced by major automakers. Maruti Suzuki recorded a 34% increase in exports to a record 447,000 units in FY26. Saudi Arabia emerged as the largest market for Indian truck exports, while the United Arab Emirates led bus exports.
Commenting on the sector’s outlook, Tushar Bhaskar, president of Rubix Data Sciences, said the industry’s rapid expansion presents new operational challenges.
“India’s passenger and commercial vehicle industry is entering a phase of scale we haven’t seen before, but scale like this always outruns risk management before it outruns demand,” Bhaskar said.
“Every record export number and capacity announcement from an OEM sits on top of a much longer chain of component makers, dealers and logistics partners whose balance sheets weren’t built for this pace of change,” he added. “The winners over the next decade will be the companies that can grow while seeing the risk building three tiers down their supply chain before it reaches them.”
Despite the strong growth outlook, the report highlighted near-term supply chain risks stemming from developments in West Asia, rising compliance costs driven by stricter emissions standards, and volatility in raw material prices.
It added that key drivers of future industry growth include the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, adoption of advanced technologies such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)—which reached 8.3% penetration in the first half of 2025—and the continued expansion of electric vehicle adoption. (ANI)
About The Author
